When the medals are tallied, will Jamaican and Caribbean athletes be giant slayers at the London 2012 Summer Olympics, July 27 to August 12, where the tracks, pools and pits are ready for the runners, jumpers, divers, throwers and other performers?
A PricewaterhouseCoopersĀ (PwC) model is forecasting that among insular Caribbean countries Jamaica will retain its medal tally of 11 as compared to Beijing 2008, while Cubaās total will decline to 20 from 24, even as superpower nations the USA, China and Russia retain their top three status with some juggling of their numbers.
āIn general, the number of medals won increases with the population and economic wealth of the country, but less than proportionately…,ā wrote PwCās UK Chief Economist John Hawksworth, in his Modelling Olympic performance -Economic briefing paper, released in mid-June.
āThe following economic and political factors were found to be statistically significant in explaining the number of medals won by each country at previous Olympic Games:
Against the background of Jamaicaās 11 medal take at Beijing, led by the worldās fastest man, Usain Bolt, and Veronica Campbell-Brown in the sprints, and with the countryās relatively small population coupled with an economy under siege, Abeng News MagazineĀ asked Hawksworth for his explanation for the countryās overachieving performance.
“Jamaica’s Olympic success is a classic example of how David can sometimes beat Goliath in the Olympic arena through specialising and focusing available resources on areas of particular strength,ā he responded. āFor Jamaica this has been sprinting, mirroring the success through specialisation of relatively small, low income countries such as Cuba in boxing and Kenya and Ethiopia in long distance running.ā
HawksworthĀ says once such a sporting tradition has been established, success tends to breed success as young athletes follow their heroes into those same sports.
āWe can see a similar thing happening in the UK recently with cycling and rowing,ā he added.
(There are continuing debates on the reasons for the Jamaican success, which has been growing since 1948, when the country won its first medals via Arthur Wint and Herb McKinley in the 400 meters at London (edited). Some contend that there is a āspeed geneā that makes Caribbean athletes run fast ā which doesnāt take into account parents without an athletic bone. Others say itās the yams eaten by athletes of rural origins like Bolt but that doesnāt account for the city sprinters.)
According to his analysis home advantage could once again play a part in how the Olympic medals are shared in August; but the superpowers of the US, China and Russia are again set to battle it out at the top.
Itās the fourth time PwCĀ has published an analysis of how medal performance at the Olympic Games can beĀ linked to such factors as past Olympic performance, economics and state support for sport. PwC’s paper updates these estimates to allow for actual results in Beijing 2008.
Some of the interesting conclusions drawn from the PwC model are:
At Beijing, Jamaica topped the countries with Caribbean borders based on gold medals won but Cuba gained the most medals.
Rank | Country | Gold | Silver | Bronze | Total |
14 | Jamaica | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
28 | Ā Cuba (CUB) | 2 | 11 | 11 | 24 |
36 | Ā Mexico (MEX) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
46 | Ā Dominican Republic (DOM) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
52 | Ā Panama (PAN) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
59 | Ā Trinidad and Tobago (TRI) | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
64 | Ā Ā Bahamas (BAH) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
64 | Ā Ā Colombia (COL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
80 | Ā Venezuela (VEN) | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Following is the PwC model estimates for the London games:
Country | Model estimate of medal total in London 2012 | Medal total in Beijing 2008 | Difference |
1. US | 113 | 110 | +3 |
2. China | 87 | 100 | -13 |
3. Russia | 68 | 73 | -5 |
4. Great Britain | 54 | 47 | +7 |
5. Australia | 42 | 46 | -4 |
6. Germany | 41 | 41 | 0 |
7. France | 37 | 41 | -4 |
8. Japan | 28 | 25 | +3 |
9. Italy | 27 | 27 | 0 |
10. South Korea | 27 | 31 | -4 |
11. Ukraine | 21 | 27 | -6 |
12. Cuba | 20 | 24 | -4 |
13. Spain | 18 | 18 | 0 |
14. Netherlands | 16 | 16 | 0 |
15. Canada | 15 | 18 | -3 |
16. Brazil | 15 | 15 | 0 |
17. Belarus | 14 | 19 | -5 |
18. Kenya | 13 | 14 | -1 |
19. Romania | 11 | 8 | +3 |
20. Hungary | 11 | 10 | +1 |
21. Jamaica | 11 | 11 | 0 |
22. Poland | 10 | 10 | 0 |
23. Turkey | 10 | 8 | +2 |
24. Kazakhstan | 9 | 13 | -4 |
25. Greece | 8 | 4 | +4 |
26. Norway | 7 | 9 | -2 |
27. Bulgaria | 7 | 5 | +2 |
28. New Zealand | 7 | 9 | -2 |
29. Denmark | 7 | 7 | 0 |
30. Argentina | 7 | 6 | +1 |
Top 30 total medals | 761 | 792 | -31 |
Other countries | 197 | 166 | +31 |
Total medals | 958 | 958 | 0 |
Editor, author and writer with career spanning print, radio, television and new media.