Analysis

Terror in Mumbai

Nov 26th, 2008 | By | Category: Analysis

Flames over Mumbai. If the Nov. 26 attacks in Mumbai were carried out by Islamist militants as it appears, the Indian government will have little choice, politically speaking, but to blame them on Pakistan. That will in turn spark a crisis between the two nuclear rivals that will draw the United States into the fray. [...]



Obama: First Moves

Nov 24th, 2008 | By | Category: Analysis

The Obama-Biden economic team at press conference. Three weeks after the U.S. presidential election, we are getting the first signs of how President-elect Barack Obama will govern. That now goes well beyond the question of what is conventionally considered U.S. foreign policy — and thus beyond Stratfor’s domain. At this moment in history, however, in [...]



On G-20 and GM: Economics, Politics and Social Stability

Nov 17th, 2008 | By | Category: Analysis

The G-20 met last Saturday. Afterward, the group issued a meaningless statement and decided to meet again in March 2009, or perhaps later. Clearly, the urgency of October is gone. First, the perception of imminent collapse is past. Politicians are superb seismographs for detecting impending disaster, and these politicians did not act as if they [...]



Obama and the Presidential Security Challenge

Nov 16th, 2008 | By | Category: Analysis

The U.S. presidential campaign trail presents a host of challenges for the US Secret Service (USSS) protective detail assigned to cover the presidential candidates, something we’ve discussed previously. Major presidential candidates have been afforded USSS protection since the 1968 assassination of Robert Kennedy at a campaign event. Due to the nature of modern presidential campaigns, [...]



The GOP and PNP for 2012

Nov 2nd, 2008 | By | Category: Analysis

2012 is going to be a significant year for any number of reasons. According to the Mayan calendar, there is supposed to be a major astrological event that year and there are some folks who are of the opinion that Doomsday will occur in that year as well. The magnitude and significance of these events are [...]



Jamaica’s Time to Grieve

Oct 1st, 2008 | By | Category: Analysis

The small community of Cyprus Hall in the parish of St. Mary, Jamaica was the scene of untold anguish late Sunday morning, when what is believed to have been the body of little Ananda “Passion” Dean was recovered in a mutilated condition, from a ledge over a precipice miles from her home. The 11 year-old had been [...]



Tribalism vs Democracy – The Aftermath of the PNP Election

Sep 24th, 2008 | By | Category: Analysis

Say it isn’t so! Jamaicans’ long awaited leadership transformation of the People’s national Party (PNP) is underway! After last week’s internal elections following Peter Phillips’s challenge of Portia Simpson for the presidency, the party appears to be shedding everything orange except the relic practice of calling each other “comrade”. The outcome of the elections, while shocking to [...]



Ethanol – Sweet Deal for Brazil, Dark Corner for Jamaica

Aug 11th, 2008 | By | Category: Analysis

The recent so-called divestment of Jamaica’s sugar industry.should rather be termed “dash-wey”, for it is nothing short of a give-away. Prime Minister Bruce Golding’s administration, its wish to be perceived as “di bus driva” notwithstanding, has simply tossed over the keys of the bus of state to the Brazilians, and for a huge fare (75% [...]



Party, Class and Democracy – A Jamaican Challenge

Jul 14th, 2008 | By | Category: Analysis

The contenders, Peter Phillips and Portia Simpson Miller After 70 years Jamaica’s People’s National Party (PNP) is becoming a democratic institution and the resistance is foreboding. How else could one interpret the reaction to Dr Peter Phillips’ stated intention to challenge Portia Simpson-Miller for the presidency of the party at its birthday annual conference come [...]



Divining The Roots of Crime

May 18th, 2008 | By | Category: Analysis

Bedfellows On the surface, nothing links Jamaica’s collapsed Cash Plus alternative investment scheme, the debacle of the exposé of Spanish company RIU flouting its municipal council approved building plan and going four floors up instead of three near Montego Bay’s airport, and the slaughter of a dozen people in the Guyanese village of Buxton. Nothing, [...]